Last year I posted this chart, predicting BTC would be under $40,000 today, so I thought it would be fair to post an update.
| Inflection | Date | Days | Price | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| High | 11/30/13 | 1,127 | ||
| Low | 1/14/15 | 410 | 172 | -85% |
| High | 12/16/17 | 1,067 | 19,665 | +11,324% |
| Low | 12/17/18 | 366 | 3,217 | -84% |
| High | 11/9/21 | 1,058 | 67,617 | +2,002% |
| Low | 11/10/22 | 366 | 15,742 | -77% |
| High | 10/7/25 | 1,062 | 124,774 | +693% |
| Low | 10/8/26? | 366? | 37,400? | -70%? |
Obviously I and all the other four year cyclers were wrong, and BTC is now more than double my prediction. I never believed in the halvening as some kind of structural driver, but I did think the cycle was a self fulfilling prophecy.
Since this cycle was so different on the downside, I'd be very careful assuming a 3 year bull market is in the cards or that Bitcoin is destined to make another inflation adjusted all time high. I think the reasonable range of outcomes is now wider than ever, and the days of it being a bet with asymmetric upside are over.
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